Methodology

The method is the product.

A finding is only as good as the evidence behind it and the honesty about its limits. Here is how every Cascade conclusion is sourced, graded, tested, verified, and explained.

The process

Five steps, applied to every finding.

Nothing reaches a client that has not moved through all five. Where a step cannot be completed, we say so rather than paper over it.

01

Source it

Every claim begins with a source. We identify what a finding rests on (a corporate registry filing, a court or regulatory record, a local-language report, a primary document, or a direct field observation) and capture it, with the date it was obtained and who obtained it.

If a claim has no source we can point to, it is not a finding. It is a hypothesis, and we label it that way.

02

Grade it

Not all sources carry equal weight. We grade each one, a letter (A–F) for how reliable the source is and a number (1–6) for how credible the information is, so an authoritative primary record and a single unverified account are never read as equivalent. The grade travels with every source behind a finding.

03

Test it

We look for corroboration across independent sources, and we deliberately look for what would contradict a finding, not only what confirms it. A conclusion that survives a genuine attempt to break it is worth more than one that was never challenged.

04

Verify it

Where a question matters and where verification is possible, we confirm it in the field, through a site visit, a local-language inquiry, or direct observation of what desktop sources only assert. This is the step that separates decision-grade intelligence from desktop research.

05

Explain it

We state plainly what the evidence supports, how confident we are, and where the picture is still open. A finding you cannot interpret is not useful; a confidence level you cannot see is not honest. Both are part of every conclusion we deliver.


How we grade a source

Every source carries a grade. Most research never tells you.

We grade sources on the Admiralty scale, the source-rating standard long used in professional intelligence. A letter rates how reliable the source is; a number rates how credible the specific information is. The two are kept separate on purpose: a usually reliable source can still pass on something unconfirmed, and an honest grade has to show both.

We apply one standard to everything we assess: a human source, a documentary record, and a direct field observation are all graded the same way, so a single method runs through every finding we produce. Those grades roll up into a finding-level confidence, stated plainly as Confirmed, Credible, or Unconfirmed, so you see both the inputs and the conclusion they support.

The scale
Source reliability
ACompletely reliable
BUsually reliable
CFairly reliable
DNot usually reliable
EUnreliable
FCannot be judged
Information credibility
1Confirmed
2Probably true
3Possibly true
4Doubtful
5Improbable
6Cannot be judged
How to read a grade

A grade pairs the two: the letter rates the source, the number rates the information. Deeper shading means more weight; a faint grade signals less, or not yet judged — never a verdict of “bad.”

A1a completely reliable source, information confirmed
C3a fairly reliable source, information possibly true
F6a source or claim not yet judged

Evidence mark

Field verified means exactly that.

When a finding carries the Field Verified mark, it means a Cascade analyst confirmed it on the ground, through a site visit, direct observation, or primary documentation obtained in person, rather than inferring it from a database.

The mark is applied to specific findings, not to whole reports. A report can contain field-verified facts alongside documented and reported ones; the mark tells you precisely which is which. We never apply it to a claim that has not actually been verified in the field.

Worked example

Finding. The manufacturer’s registered facility is operational at the stated address.

How it was established. An analyst attended the site, confirmed active production, and documented it with timestamped photography.

What the mark does not mean. It does not certify output volumes or financials, only what was directly observed.

Field verified

Source protection

We protect the people who make the work possible.

Good field intelligence depends on people who speak to us in confidence, often at some risk to themselves. Protecting them is both an ethical obligation and the reason we are able to work at all.

  • We do not disclose source identities. Not in reports, not in the workspace, not to clients.
  • We separate the finding from the person. You receive what was established and how reliable it is, without details that could expose who established it.
  • We handle material carefully. Sensitive engagement information is access-controlled and shared only with those who need it.
  • We decline work that cannot be done without exposing a source to unacceptable risk, and we tell you when that is the case.

What we do not claim

Honesty about limits is part of the method.

Decision-grade means knowing the edges of what the evidence can carry. We are explicit about what intelligence work cannot do.

  • We do not claim certainty we cannot evidence.Every finding carries a confidence level, and some questions resolve only to “unverified.”
  • We do not claim total coverage.Some records are inaccessible, some jurisdictions are opaque, and we tell you where the picture stops.
  • We do not claim to predict outcomes.We establish facts and assess risk; we do not promise what will happen next.
  • We do not claim findings are permanent.Ground truth changes. A verified finding is accurate as of when it was verified, and we date it accordingly.
  • We do not present inference as observation.What we reasoned and what we witnessed are labelled differently, every time.

Have a question your database can’t answer?

Tell us what you need to verify. We’ll show you how the method would apply to your matter, in confidence.